10 months ago
Artificial intelligence is advancing at such a fast rate that it’s become a matter of when, not if, jobs for humans will be replaced by robots.
The world’s leading computer science experts shared their predictions for when AI would be capable of tasks currently done by humans. Their dire analysis: It’s a 50 percent probability that people will be outperformed in nearly every job within 45 years.
In the next ten years, experts predict artificial intelligence will be better than humans in translating languages, writing high essays, driving trucks, and writing a top-40 pop song.
Yet, writers, retail workers, and doctors can rest easy—for a little while. Pundits expect AI to master working in retail by 2031, writing a New York Times bestseller by 2049, and performing surgery by 2053.
Made in 2015, these predictions stem from surveys by Katja Grace, a University of Oxford researcher. She polled 352 experts that submitted papers to the world’s two leading AI symposiums. Grace aggregated their responses and published her study Tuesday.
Though they are experts, they are still fallible—they’re humans, after all. Researchers predicted AI could beat a human in Go by 2027, but that already happened last week, Wired reports.