NFL Free Agency Fantasy Fallout: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Yesterday, we examined where the top free agent quarterbacks and running backs wound up and made an educated guess about the sort of fantasy value they’ll offer in their new homes.

Today is a new day. As such, we’re going to be looking at wide receivers and tight ends instead.

Everybody good with that? Let’s make like pogo sticks and hop to it.

Wide Receiver

Sammy Watkins, Kansas City: After years of producing below expectations, Watkins joins an offense that already has Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt in need of targets. Watkins could eventually find himself third on that list in terms of overall targets, but Kelce and Hunt will likely still dominate in the red zone. Watkins should be drafted, but it’ll be a wait-and-see situation.

Jarvis Landry, Cleveland: In Landry, the Browns have their most consistent receiving option in years. As he did with the Dolphins, expect Landry to dominate targets and rack up steady, if unspectacular, amounts of yardage. He likely won’t find himself in the end zone all that often, but Landry will still be a viable week-to-week starter due to the volume of work coming his way.

Jordy Nelson, Oakland: Now playing opposite Amari Cooper, Nelson will be the clear secondary option for quarterback Derek Carr. However, as we saw last year when he was catching passes from Brett Hundley due to injury, Nelson has yet to show he can produce unless it is Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. That doesn’t mean he can’t though, just don’t expect Nelson to approach the numbers he was putting up in Green Bay two years ago.

Michael Crabtree and John Brown, Baltimore: Even though they are new to the Ravens, Crabtree and Brown should immediately slot in as quarterback Joe Flacco’s favorite targets (in that order). Unfortunately for both of them, they’ll have Flacco throwing them the ball which severely caps how much upside they can offer. Crabtree will enter the year as the preferred option, but it wouldn’t be all that surprising to Brown end the year with the most value.

Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola, Miami: The best thing working for both of these players is that Landry, and the 161 targets he commanded last year, is no longer in Miami. Wilson is the better bet of the two to soak up a sizable chunk of that volume because he played well out of the slot last year and is a much better bet to stay healthy than Amendola. That said, DeVante Parker still projects at the top target in Miami and the best Dolphins receiver to own.

Torrey Smith, Carolina: Another year, another new team for Smith. The Panthers will likely want the speedy wideout to get behind the defense and catch the deep balls that Cam Newton is totally capable of delivering. Expect a couple of big scoring days when Newton and Smith are able to connect on a long bomb or two, but don’t expect Smith to be a solid fantasy asset.

Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel, Chicago: Neither one of these guys had value last year – Robinson because of injury and Gabriel because of ineffectiveness – but both could be fantasy assets on the Bears. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky flashed at times last year despite not having too many options to throw to. Robinson should immediately become his go-to target while Gabriel has the best shot of being his clear No. 2 target. The Bears also may want to utilize Gabriel’s playmaking ability and speed by handing him the ball on gadget plays.

Donte Moncrief, Jacksonville: Instead of going out and getting themselves a real quarterback, the Jaguars opted to throw Moncrief at the problem that is Blake Bortles. He’ll join a receivers group that already has mouths to feed in Marqise Lee, Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook. Still, none of those players have proven themselves as elite options, so there’s a chance Moncrief recaptures some of the value he had a few years ago while playing for the Colts.

Paul Richardson, Washington: The Redskins gave Richardson $20 million guaranteed, so they obviously have a good deal of confidence he can emerge as something more than a deep situational threat. He did have 44 catches, 703 yards and six scores last year, so there’s some reason for optimism that he actually can. It’s still probably wise to let someone else take that gamble though.

Tight End

Trey Burton, Chicago: The last time we saw Burton, he was throwing a touchdown to Nick Foles during the Super Bowl. Don’t expect to see him doing that next year – or ever again – but do expect Burton to emerge as second-year QB Mitch Trubisky’s security blanket. If last year was any indication, he’s going to need one, so there’s a chance Burton has sold value in 2018.

Jimmy Graham: Green Bay: With Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, anything is possible for Graham. And that does mean everything – from a double-digit touchdown campaign to a year that sees Graham fall well short of draft day expectations (as he often did in Seattle). For the upside alone though, Graham will make for a very intriguing, and possibly frustrating, selection.

Eric Ebron, Indianapolis: The Colts already have a decent tight end in Jack Doyle, but Ebron should garner his fair share of attention from whomever Indy has behind center. Hopefully, for Ebron’s (and Doyle’s) fantasy value, it’s Andrew Luck. If it’s not, don’t expect much from Ebron in the way of fantasy production. Even if it is, Doyle still may emerge as the better option.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jacksonville: If he can establish himself as a red-zone target and develop a good rapport with Blake Bortles, Seferian-Jenkins could be in for a breakout year. He’s got all the tools to be a good fantasy option at tight end and would’ve had a much better season last year were it not for a number of dumb penalties and the fact he was on the Jets.

Ed Dickson, Seattle: With Graham now on the Packers, Dickson is currently positioned as the starting tight end for the Seahawks. However, that doesn’t mean he should be the starting tight end for your fantasy team as expecting him to do anything more than score the occasional touchdown and block for Seattle’s running backs and Russell Wilson is not realistic at this point.