Inside the Redskins vs. Bucs Showdown With a Pro Handicapper: Under the Helmet Week 10

Dave Michaels of SportsInformationTraders previews this intriguing NFC matchup.

November 10, 2018 5:00 am
TAMPA, FL - AUGUST 31: Washington Redskins wide receiver Levern Jacobs (88) and Washington Redskins offensive lineman Ronald Patrick (62) block Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive end Channing Ward (71) during an NFL preseason football game between the Washington Redskins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on August 31, 2017, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
TAMPA, FL - AUGUST 31: Washington Redskins wide receiver Levern Jacobs (88) and Washington Redskins offensive lineman Ronald Patrick (62) block Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive end Channing Ward (71) during an NFL preseason football game between the Washington Redskins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on August 31, 2017, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Leading the NFC East at 5-3, the Washington Redskins have been one of the biggest surprises of the NFL season. Many thought they would be occupying the floor of the division, not the penthouse, by this point.

Before the season some experts had similar lowered expectations for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and, unfortunately for Bucs fans, the team has generally delivered on that as they have lost five out of their last six following a hot start and now sit at the bottom of the NFC South at 3-5.

For both teams, the key to reaching this point in the season has been defense: the Redskins are good at it and the Bucs are abhorrent at it.

Ranked dead last in points allowed per game at 34.4, Tampa Bay has yet to hold an opponent below 21 points and surrendered 79 points combined over the past two weeks in losses to the Bengals and Panthers.

The team they will be hosting this week in Tampa, the Redskins, was also bad on defense last week in surrendering 38 points to the Falcons. However, on the season Washington ranks ninth in the NFL in point allowed at 21.5 per game and has held three decent teams (Packers, Panthers, Cowboys) to just 17 points.

If they are going to win on Sunday in Florida,  the Redskins will need that defense to come up big as their offense will likely struggle after losing 60 percent of their already banged-up line when left guard Shawn Lauvao, right guard Brandon Scherff, and right tackle Morgan Moses all left with injuries last week.

Even against Tampa, Washington will likely struggle to protect Alex Smith in the pocket so running back Adrian Peterson should figure to be the focal point of the offense. That was already the case before the offensive line injuries – Washington wide receivers rank last in the NFL with 106 yards per game – but it will likely be even more so on Sunday.

CHARLOTTE, NC – NOVEMBER 04: Ryan Fitzpatrick #14 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Carolina Panthers during their game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
Getty Images

Tampa’s receivers are in a completely different boat as they lead the league with 272 receiving yards per game as a unit and have proven adept at catching long-range bombs from veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick.

True, Fitzpatrick hasn’t been great against good pass defenses, but the Redskins have been struggling in that area in recent weeks and just gave up four touchdowns and 350 passing yards to Matt Ryan last week.

The Bucs have also accomplished next to nothing on the ground this year – they only run rush plays about 35 percent of the time – so Fitzpatrick should be busy on Sunday. If he is, the Bucs – who are seventh in the NFL in scoring at 28.6 points per game – could end up covering the three-point spread and then some.

At least that’s how pro handicapper Dave Michaels of SportsInformationTraders sees it.

“Washington comes into this matchup in first place in the NFC East. Tampa is currently heading up the rear of the NFC South,” Michaels told RealClearLife. “But there is a reason why they are laying points this week, and a reason why I feel this is a strong value play.”

Already an issue last week, Washington’s woes at offensive line could be too much to overcome on the road in an unfriendly environment.

“Almost the entire Redskins offense is either banged up or out for the game,” Michaels told RCL. “Their line is literally down to practice squad guys at this point.”

Thanks to that, Washington will rely on its defense, but that might not be enough.

“Tampa, while facing its own struggles over the last month, has proven they can put points on the board,” he said. “I really like them at home this week to get a much-needed win. They have faced much better competition recently, and I don’t see Washington being able to score with them.”

Michaels is now 4-4-1 on the season with his picks after taking the Vikings to cover a five-point spread at home against the Detroit Lions.

He was dead on as Minnesota trounced the Lions on the defensive side of the ball and did more than enough on offense to cruise to a comfortable 24-9 win in a relatively low-scoring game.

Hopefully, the win train will keep rolling this week in Tampa Bay.

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