In the last weekend in January, a movie released this month finally finished in the top spot at the box office.
Fox’s Maze Runner: The Death Cure, the third installment in the franchise based on the YA dystopian fantasy novels, earned $23.5 million in its debut to dethrone Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which held on to No. 1 for the past three weeks. That blockbuster Sony comedy still finished in second place, with $16.4 million, padding out the $338 million it earned during its six-week run. Released in late December, the Dwayne Johnson/Kevin Hart vehicle steamrolled over every new movie that came out since, including movies starring Liam Neeson (The Commuter) and Chris Hemsworth (12 Strong).
As impressive as Jumanji‘s run has been, the truth is January almost always belongs to the big December releases or the wide expansions of award season hopefuls. After all, Ride Along (2014) holds the January record for a debut weekend with $41 million, by far the lowest of the monthly records. Studios treat the month like the bargain bin of a video rental store.
“January is sort of like the day after the big party ended,” says Paul Dergarabedian, senior box office analyst for ComScore.
“It’s been a great stretch for Jumanji, but for the industry as a whole, it’s not necessarily been the greatest month. You want to have some churn, so to speak, to show that other films are building a foundation. But new product just hasn’t resonated.”
In recent years, Hollywood has realized that big-budget tentpoles don’t have to be restricted to the summer or holiday movie seasons. In 2010, Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland became the first March film to open with more than $100 million; three other movies have passed that mark since. Then Deadpool proved it could be done in February, breaking that barrier in 2016. It won’t be too many weeks before Black Panther opens on Feb. 16 to obliterate his fellow Marvel hero’s hold on that monthly record.
“Every month has become a potential blockbuster breeding ground… except for January,” said Dergarabedian.
He feels there could be potential for an eventual January blockbuster opening — but there are factors holding back studios from experimenting.
Dergarabedian points out the promotion of Academy Award contending films dominates the bulk of studio’s marketing budget at this time of year. Acclaim is worth its weight in gold.
Then there’s the Super Bowl. Does it look as if a studio doesn’t think its superhero entry looks so super if a new trailer isn’t playing during the big game?
Still, as summers become more crowded with releases, one film may test just how hot a ticket can be in the coldest month of the year.
“Studios look at the law of averages and the stats for January don’t seem to support the notion of a $100 million opening,” he said. “But then, September never had an opening over $50 million until It (debuted to) $123 million last year.
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